Cybersecurity Stock Report

FROM THE EDITORS AT CYBERSECURITY VENTURES

The Cybersecurity Stock Report is published quarterly by Cybersecurity Ventures. We provide a list of 60+ publicly-traded cybersecurity companies, a stock watch list with real-time quotes, our editors choice for the hottest company, insights on the cyber firms we track, and a recap of the cybersecurity stock market for the prior quarter.

MARKET WATCH

Q4 2106: Barracuda Swims with The Sharks; Palo Alto Disappoints; Cybersecurity Market Zooming

Mixed outlook from analysts in a surging cybersecurity market.

allsiongatlinembossAllison Gatlin

Menlo Park, Calif. – Mar. 24, 2017

The security market slowed to 10% growth in calendar Q4 2016, FBN analyst Shebly Seyrafi said in February after pure player Palo Alto Networks reported a fourth consecutive quarter of slowing revenue growth.

Palo Alto Networks wasn’t alone in reporting disappointing sales for the quarter ended in December. On average, a third of cybersecurity companies on Wall Street missed sales expectations. Just north of 15% lagged on profits.

Across the public market, sales growth decelerated for the fourth straight period. However, earnings surged among companies in the black, up on average 34.7% in Q4 with Barracuda Networks posting an impressive triple-digit growth.

“Looking back, there appears to have been above-normal security market spend in calendar year 2014 and calendar year 2015,” Seyrafi said. “But this growth is now returning to more normalized growth rates.”

At least six publicly traded companies reported losses in calendar Q4. Among them, KEYW Holding, Digimarc and Cyren reported worse-than-expected losses per share minus certain items.

FireEye was able to escape reporting consensus-missing losses by smartly managing its operational expenses, though the firm can only cut so much without impacting its topline and billings growth, Seyrafi said in a Feb. 3 note to clients.

The most recent top analyst upgrades included FireEye raised to Buy from Sell at Goldman Sachs, according to 24/7 Wall Street. The firm raised its price target to $15 from $10, implying some 30% upside. A similar call was made by Merrill Lynch, when it raised that rating to Buy from Neutral, but its target was even more aggressive at $18. FireEye stock jumped following news of the upgrade.

For 2017, Seyrafi expects high-single-digit to 10% sales growth for the broad security market following 14% growth in 2016 and a massive 18% upswing in industry growth in 2015.

Dougherty analyst Catharine Trebnick noted as much in her research report following the annual RSA Conference in February in San Francisco, Calif. Last year was a “year of digestion after frenzied spend in the preceding two years.”

“2017 also sees more normalized spend as companies continue to put more diligence on evaluating security purchases,” she said. “However, it remains clear that companies will allocate budget in areas where they feel deficient.”

In an exhaustive 200-page report from Jefferies, the analysts stress that while (cybersecurity) growth has tapered some, the critical need remains intact. High-profile hacking at the government and corporate levels has stayed in the headlines, so investors remain aware that the overall need has not diminished.

Jefferies has four stocks in this market rated Buy, including Mimecast, the pure-play cybersecurity firm focused on email protection and the rapidly expanding cloud security category. Jefferies has a whopping $30 price target, while the consensus target is $27.39. The shares closed most recently at $19.96.

Global Cybersecurity Spending

Steve Morgan, Editor-In-Chief at Cybersecurity Ventures, puts the overall market in perspective, saying “we are continuing to see a rising tide of spending with smaller and emerging privately held players in the cybersecurity space, as well as big tech vendors who are competing head-on with the established pure play cyber firms — which has led some analysts to suggest an artificial slowdown.”

Global spending on cybersecurity products and services is expected to exceed $1 trillion cumulatively over the next 5 years, from 2017 to 2021, according to the Cybersecurity Market Report. “We anticipate 12-15 percent year-over-year cybersecurity market growth through 2021, compared to the 8-10 percent projected over the next five years by several industry analysts” says Morgan.

While all other tech sectors are driven by reducing inefficiencies and increasing productivity, cybersecurity spending is driven by cybercrime. “The unprecedented cybercriminal activity we are witnessing is generating so much cyber spending, it’s become nearly impossible for analysts to accurately track — especially those who focus exclusively on publicly-traded companies and use that as a market barometer” says Morgan.

Cybersecurity Ventures predicts cybercrime damages will cost the world $6 trillion annually by 2021, up from $3 trillion in 2015. Major media outlets, vendors, industry associations, and universities have corroborated that prediction, with some saying the costs may actually be greater.

The cybercrime cost prediction includes damage and destruction of data, stolen money, lost productivity, theft of intellectual property, theft of personal and financial data, embezzlement, fraud, post-attack disruption to the normal course of business, forensic investigation, restoration and deletion of hacked data and systems, and reputational harm.

Q4 Highlights

Venture capital spending on cybersecurity toppled in 2016 and was down by half in Q4 on “too much undifferentiated activity” in the cybersecurity space, and decreasing efficiency in scaling sales, Dougherty’s Trebnick said after RSA.

That was certainly the case for Palo Alto Networks and FireEye. Both noted sales team productivity declined in Q4, leading to sales misses. Palo Alto brought in $422.6 million in sales, growing 26.2%. FireEye was flat at $184.7 million.

For Palo Alto Networks, it was the sixth consecutive quarter sales growth has slowed and “one of the worst quarters in recent history,” Piper Jaffray analyst Andrew Nowinski said. Sales had never before dipped below 30% growth.

As venture capitalists noted, Palo Alto Networks struggled with an overly complicated sales strategy that didn’t pan out in Q4. Product sales declined for the second straight quarter, though services revenue grew 54% year over year.

This suggests “continued momentum in the adoption of their ‘integrated platform,’” Dougherty’s Trebnick said. But the stock fell nearly 24.2% on March 1, the day after Palo Alto’s fiscal Q2 report.

Still, Palo Alto continues to outperform its rivals, Nowinski said. Total sales grew 19.7% vs. just 6.2% growth for Check Point Software Technologies. Cisco Systems’ deferred security revenue grew 44%, trailing Palo Alto’s 61%.

Cisco, too, is outperforming the broader industry. Though security sales brought in less than 5% of its total sales, Cisco managed to grow security revenue by 14% for its quarter ended Jan. 28, up from 11% growth in the prior period.

FBN’s Seyrafi estimates Cisco grew its share by 1 percentage point in Q4 after ceding share in the security market until Q3. Tech giant IBM also plays in the security market, but it’s not gaining share, he said. “Cisco and IBM both have $2 billion cybersecurity businesses, up from roughly $1.5 billion apiece just a year ago” says Cybersecurity Ventures’ Morgan.

TheStreet reports that Jim Cramer is sticking with Cisco when it comes to Cybersecurity. “CEO Chuck Robbins has made cybersecurity a very big priority at Cisco and that could be bad news for its competitors”, said Cramer.

“What is true is that Check Point is no longer losing share,” said Seyrafi. The Motley Fool reports that Check Point Software’s strong fourth quarter and fiscal year was a product of CEO Gil Shwed’s strategic plan. Check Point had another consistent year and its quarterly revenue of $487 million was well above analyst estimates of $478 million.

The fourth quarter was also marked by the entrance of root9b to Nasdaq. root9B CEO Joe Grano rang the opening bell on Jan. 19 in celebration. The stock began trading in December, but is now down 44% from that point.

“root9B has a great story” says Morgan. “The company was just listed on Nasdaq and from our vantage point they are at the end of the runway, ready for take off.”

root9B has won several impressive contracts for its cybersecurity services over the past year, including a 5 year subcontract supporting the Department of Defense. root9B also announced they are teaming with Science Applications International Corp. (NYSE: SAIC) to provide advanced cybersecurity training and simulation environments to government clients.

M&A Continues

Acquisitions also ramped in calendar Q4 with Symantec announcing the $2.3 billion deal to acquire identity theft protection outlet LifeLock. That deal closed in February, about the time Palo Alto closed its $105 million bid on LightCyber.

Among a smattering of Q4 deals, Akamai bought Cyberfend and Sophos acquired Barricade. Recent M&A action comes amid a close focus on inter-connected cybersecurity systems, Dougherty says.

Talk during RSA pointed toward a coming trend of consolidation with C-level management seeing companies with $5 million to $10 million in sales and highly skilled cybersecurity teams as susceptible to being swept up.

“Industry experts speculated that flattening growth and a need to recapitalize may lead to smaller startups getting snapped up for their technology and/or in-demand security engineers,” she said. Though, big deals aren’t expected.

She added: “Anecdotally, we were told the security market is a ‘hot mess’ with too many firms with features masquerading as products and products disguised as platforms.”

Wall Street has reflected as much. Broadly, cybersecurity stock fell 15% over the course of Q4. The HACK exchange-traded fund fared better and only dipped 5.2% from October through December.

Waterbury Research recently gave a nod to the Purefunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (NYSEARCA:HACK) as its top pick for 2017 in a Seeking Alpha story, saying “If Cisco’s calendar Q1 earnings are any indication the entire (cybersecurity) sector is going to outperform this year.” The Motley Fool notes the HACK ETF has gained 23% over the past twelve months.

InformationWeek/DarkReading provides a top level view on M&A activity in the cybersecurity market — highlighting the $614 million acquisition of application security vendor Veracode by CA Technologies, and a dozen security platform deals led by Apple and Amazon Web Services (AWS).

While the market may seem messy and be difficult to grasp for some analysts, the cybersecurity space is evolving in a local fashion. Large vendors have opted to buy (versus build) small vendors in order to expand their footprints and enter new categories in a rapidly expanding industry.

“Cybersecurity is still a cottage industry with a limited number of unicorns, and it will remain that way for the foreseeable future” notes Morgan. “Analysts struggle to put their arms around this market because it’s an anomaly. They can’t take the pulse of the market without including the large number of well funded startups and fast growing privately held companies.”

Markets to Watch

Security awareness training is emerging as one of the fastest growing categories in cyber. An Infosecurity Magazine story features a new report from Cybersecurity Ventures predicting that the employee awareness education and training market will reach $10 billion in 2027, a 900 percent increase from 2014.

One company benefiting is privately-held KnowBe4, a fast-growing security awareness CBT (computer based training) and phishing platform provider based in Clearwater, Fla. KnowBe4 is projecting sales of $40+ million for FY 2017, The company had an explosive year-over-year sales increase of 298% for Q4 2016 — with a record number of over 750 new corporate accounts in December alone.

KnowBe4 closed out FY 2016 with 8,000 enterprise accounts, and for Q1 2017 they reached the 9,000 customer mark. The hot mover has seen consecutive growth for a record 15 straight quarters, and more recently a stellar 2300% growth rate from 2013 to 2016. KnowBe4 debuted at No. 139 on the Inc. 500 list of America’s fastest growing private companies for 2016, and in 2017 they moved up to the No. 38 position on the Cybersecurity 500.

The healthcare vertical represents another growth opportunity for cybersecurity companies and investors. A recent CSO story reports healthcare is the most cyber attacked industry according to the 2016 IBM X-Force Cyber Security Intelligence Index. In the same report just a year ago — when financial services held the top spot — healthcare wasn’t even in the top six.

Healthcare IT News recently reported that 81 percent of U.S. healthcare organizations are increasing security spending this year.

The security awareness training market and the healthcare vertical, like others in cyber, are being fueled by the rise in cybercrime. Investors are encouraged to do their homework on cybercrime trends, industry verticals, and privately held companies to get a complete picture of the evolving cybersecurity industry.

“In 2004, the global cybersecurity market was worth $3.5 billion — and in 2017 we expect it to be worth more than $120 billion” says Morgan. “The cybersecurity market grew by roughly 35X over 13 years, commensurate with the growth in cybercrime. Investors should expect the same over the next decade. The key is singling out the right market categories, and patience.”

Allison Gatlin is a journalist, tech reporter and Cybersecurity Ventures Contributor based in San Jose, Calif. Any opinions expressed here are hers and do not represent the views of her employer.

Q3 2016: Niche Players Proofpoint, Rapid7 and CyberArk Outperform Cybersecurity Market

allsiongatlinembossAllison Gatlin

Menlo Park, Calif. – Nov. 30, 2016

Publicly-traded cybersecurity firms rebounded growing more than 11% in Q3 as the lion’s share of players met or beat Wall Street’s expectations. But analysts note Palo Alto Networks’ and Fortinet’s lagging metrics could signal a reprioritization that leaves firewalls in the dust.

Wall Street hammered Fortinet stock in October when it negatively pre-announced its Q3 report. Shares of Palo Alto Networks, too, crashed 10% when the firm missed the high-end of its fiscal Q3 guidance for the first time ever and guided to a backend-loaded January quarter.

Both firms shared a commonality — product sales braked jarringly, but subscription revenue, too, hit a speed bump for the third consecutive quarter. Palo Alto’s product sales dipped to 11% growth from 24% ad 35%. Fortinet toppled to 7% growth from 19% and 28%.

Piper Jaffray analyst Andrew Nowinski blames decelerating product sales on shifting enterprise focus. In 2014 and 2015, enterprises prioritized perimeter security — helping boost Palo Alto’s and Fortinet’s valuations. Now, security inside the firewall is getting a renewal.

“There seems to be more of a focus on internal tech,” he said. “But, in 2017, we should still get the (firewall) refresh cycle benefit even if firewall spending is no longer a priority. We’re seeing more of a focus on email, database security and privileged account management.”

He added: “The bigger underlying question is why are security purchases taking longer to close and why are CIOs (chief information officers) treating security purchases the same way they do regular IT and networking purchases?”

William Blair analyst Jonathan Ho says Wall Street had expected Palo Alto’s product revenue to decelerate, but not to the degree it did. Palo Alto’s guidance indicates fiscal Q4 could be the slowest-ever quarter for product sales amid an extended deal cycle.

“I think people thought (Palo Alto Networks) had set the bar lower last quarter,” he said. “Product revenue has been steadily decelerating at a much steadier rate. … They had guided for that, but expectations were for them to do better than that result.”

Cybersecurity Firms Reach Expectations

Nearly three-quarters of publicly-traded security firms met or beat expectations, but many by the skin of their teeth, William’s Blair’s Ho says. Fortinet, alone, had relatively weak results, Piper Jaffray’s Nowinski said. Nearly nine in 10 beat on profitability, but almost a third had losses.

“A lot of the cybersecurity companies’ results were OK, they kind of barely got through it or they had to reset expectations over the last two quarters,” Ho said. “At a high level, going into 2016, companies expected a continuation of spending trends that haven’t really held up this year.”

Cybersecurity Ventures, though, doesn’t buy the slowdown theory. Instead, the spending that would normally bulk up pure security players is funneling into tech giants like Cisco Systems and IBM, and hundreds of venture-capital backed plays.

Fiscal Q3 sales as a whole were flat and declined 7%, respectively, for IBM and Cisco Systems. But both managed to grow security revenue by 11% apiece. Between 2017 and 2021, spending will top $1 trillion across the sector, Cybersecurity Ventures predicts.

But that may not extend as robustly to the public sector. Major breaches of Target, Home Depot, Ashley Maddison and the U.S. Office of Personnel Management stoked so-called “emergency spending” and record security valuations in 2014 and 2015, Ho said.

Security spending could rebound somewhat in 2017, Ho and Nowinski say. But Ho says that won’t approach 2014-2015 levels. Nowinski predicts a firewall refresh at the five-year mark after Palo Alto added a massive number of customers in 2012. Neither sees a major jump, though.

“I don’t expect (spending in 2017) to revert back to 2014 and 2015 with blank-check spending when people were panicking,” William Blair’s Ho said. “It will be more selective. But we plan for that increase. We can still have continued growth in the marketplace.”

Steve Morgan, Founder and Editor-In-Chief at Cybersecurity Ventures offers a more optimistic view on spending. “Cybercrime damages are predicted to cost the world $6 trillion annually by 2021, up from $3 trillion last year” says Morgan. “With that, governments, corporations, and consumers will hike up their spending on cyber protection.”

“The biggest news in the recent U.S. presidential election was email security” notes Morgan. “In 2016 we witnessed major hacks on the DNC, LinkedIn, Dropbox, Yahoo, and countless others. It if doesn’t feel as serious as last year, it’s because the world is getting used to cybercrime.”

Niche Players Gain Momentum

Calendar year Q3 represented a small rebound for security firms which grew 11.3% on average following 9.2% growth in Q2. Public sector growth slowed considerably from 20.8% in Q1 and 23.3% in Q4.

But there are standouts. Though Palo Alto Networks missed the Street’s expectations, its 34% total sales and 57% earnings growth is nothing to sneeze at. Still, the best growth came from Proofpoint, Rapid7 and CyberArk Software, all niche players.

Proofpoint, Rapid7 and CyberArk grew 44%, 42% and 37%, respectively, in Q3. Less than half of pure security players (47.8%) outperformed the industry. But for that trio, alongside, Palo Alto Networks, it was the fourth consecutive quarter to do so.

Others, like Symantec, Barracuda Networks, FireEye and Cyren toed the industry average, growing by low-teens percentages. Symantec’s portfolio is expanding rapidly, though. Over the past two quarters, it added Blue Coat Systems and made plans to acquire Lifelock.

Industry trends are better tilted toward email providers like Proofpoint and Mimecast, William Blair’s Ho said. A number of companies are transitioning to Microsoft Office 365 from on-site hardware, and Intel-McAfee is ending its product and recommending Proofpoint.

Like Proofpoint, Mimecast posted impressive sales growth in Q3, up 29% vs. the year-earlier quarter. Sales have accelerated for three consecutive quarters. Mimecast is now two quarters into the black, though Q3 earnings declined by half on a year-over-year basis.

Mimecast is ranked eighth in the Cybersecurity Ventures Cybersecurity 500. The company cracked the top 25 for the first time this quarter.

“Email is going through a structural transition,” Ho said. “Office 365 is causing enterprises to reevaluate their security offerings. … Based on what we’ve seen, they (Proofpoint and Mimecast) have benefited from these email trends.”

Allison Gatlin is a journalist, tech reporter, and Cybersecurity Ventures Contributor based in San Jose, Calif.

MARKET WATCH

Q2 2016: Yahoo hack, global cybercrime expected to drive up cybersecurity stocks.

allsiongatlinembossAllison Gatlin

Menlo Park, Calif. – Oct. 3, 2016

Niche players CyberArk Software and Proofpoint bucked a broad Q2 slowdown for publicly-traded cybersecurity companies which, on average, saw sales growth slow by nearly 5 percent vs. the prior quarter.

But, Yahoo’s 500 million-account breach, revealed in late September, and a greater ransomware threat targeting the healthcare sector could stoke robust spending in Q3, and a boosted interest in M&A within the sector, PureFunds CEO Andrew Chanin says.

“Any player with a large amount of cash on their balance sheet and a smaller footprint” will likely soon become acquisitive, Chanin said. He declined to comment on specific firms, but said he’s seeing an M&A drive from the diversified tech and defense sectors.

Chanin runs the HACK exchange-traded fund which has ramped 35 percent since hitting a 2016 low in February. Shares of the 35-company ETF are now up 7 percent for the year. Sales growth wasn’t strong overall in Q2, but Chanin says investor appetite is returning.

He credits the cybersecurity stock resurgence to the “cat-and-mouse” paradigm emblematic of the industry. With breaches of Yahoo, Snapchat, LinkedIn and Dropbox in the rearview, companies are on edge. And investors are ready, Chanin says.

“Some of this movement (in the HACK ETF) could be investor appetite coming back and making up from being one of the more oversold areas of technology,” he said. “We could be seeing a trend change here.”

Q2 In Review

Wall Street titters of a broad cybersecurity slowdown have plagued the industry since February when former FireEye CEO David DeWalt said “emergency spending” in the wake of the notable Target and Home Depot breaches had subsided.

Analysts have largely dismissed the suggestion as cybersecurity darlings like Palo Alto Networks, CyberArk, Proofpoint, Mimecast and Rapid7 continue outgrowing the broader industry. Cybersecurity Ventures, too, isn’t a believer in the so-called slowdown.

Public pure players like Palo Alto, FireEye and Check Point Software Technology are feeling the heat from tech giants like Cisco Systems and IBM, and hundreds of venture capital-backed start-ups, says Cybersecurity Ventures’ founder and editor-in-chief Steve Morgan.

On average, security firms publicly-traded on the NYSE or NASDAQ grew 7.2 percent in Q2, slowing from 12 percent growth in Q1. Growth was more robust in Q4 and Q3 when security players tacked on 19.9 percent and 24.8 percent, respectively, in average sales growth.

That’s amid more competition from tech giants like Cisco and IBM which saw security sales grow 16% and 18% for their quarters ended in July and June, respectively. Security comprises 4 percent of Cisco’s total sales and 2.5 percent of IBM’s.

But, there were standouts among the pure players. Small-cap Rapid7 led the pack in terms of sales growth, up 45 percent year over year to $37.3 million. That sales growth came at the expense of earnings. Rapid7 lost 22 cents per share ex items.

Meanwhile, bigger Palo Alto and Proofpoint trailed, up 41 percent vs. the year-earlier quarter to $400.8 million and $89.8 million in sales. Palo Alto posted 50 cents EPS minus items, up 79 percent and Proofpoint swung to a 6-cent gain vs. a 9-cent loss in the year-earlier period.

The enterprise market is largely a “two-horse race” between Palo Alto and Check Point, Piper Jaffray analyst Andrew Nowinski wrote in a Sept. 12 research note following calendar Q2. Check Point trails Palo Alto in terms of market cap.

But Check Point’s Q2 sales growth of 7 percent decelerated from 10 percent year-over-year growth in the prior quarter, and wasn’t enough to keep up with small-caps like Rapid7 and root9B.

Adversary pursuit and cyber operations specialist root9B tops Cybersecurity Ventures’ Cybersecurity 500 list. During Q2, root9B shifted focus to become a pure cybersecurity play. It pulled in $10.2 million in sales, up 28 percent, but losses widened to 6 cents per share.

Healthcare, IoT, Mobile Expected To Drive Q3

root9B is diving full-tilt into mobile protection where it will face off with niche players like Mimecast and Proofpoint. The mobile and Internet of Things segments were key in Q2 — evidenced by Mimecast’s 24 percent sales growth during the quarter.

PureFunds’ Chanin, Business Insider and market tracker IDC all say mobile will be a driving force in Q3 and beyond. Malware is now refocusing to smartphones and mobile devices, leaving laptop and PC attacks largely in the dust, Cybersecurity Ventures’ Morgan says.

Meanwhile, ransomware’s torqued advance will push an expected $6 trillion in cybercrime losses by 2021, according to a Cybersecurity Ventures analysis. Thus far in 2016, ransomware attacks are up 300% including a $17,000 hit on Hollywood Presbyterian Medical Center.

Attacks on the healthcare sector are up 35 percent year to date vs. this time last year, Cybersecurity Ventures found in its Hackerpocalypse report. In 2015, healthcare, manufacturing, financial services, government and transportation were the most targeted cyber-industries.

That’s because medical data is immutable and victims don’t always know they’ve been breached. Largely, companies are in the same straits, PureFunds’ Chanin says. That lingering specter spooks — and drives — the cybersecurity industry, he says.

“There’s always another major breach looming,” he said. “We’re just finding out about Yahoo now. How many more companies are there that have been breached and are just trying to figure out what to do?”

Spending Outlook

“We expect worldwide spending on cybersecurity products and services to eclipse $1 trillion cumulatively for the five-year period from 2017 to 2021” says Steve Morgan, founder and Editor-In-Chief at Cybersecurity Ventures.

Cybersecurity Ventures anticipates 12-15 percent year-over-year growth through 2021, compared to the 8-10 percent projected over the next five years by several industry analysts.

Rob Owens, Senior Research Analyst for Security and Infrastructure Software at Pacific Crest Securities, recently told Investor’s Business Daily that he sees pent-up demand for cybersecurity spending. He says companies are spending a relatively low 3 percent of their capex (capital expenditures) that’s focused on IT security.”

“From our optics, if you define cyber as data collection, storage, security, analysis, threat intelligence, operations and dissemination, then the $1 trillion market forecast from Cybersecurity Ventures barely scratches the surface” says Jeremy King, President at Benchmark Executive Search, a boutique executive search firm focused on cyber, national, and corporate security. “Cyber will never go away as the bad guys will never stop exploiting this new medium.”

Allison Gatlin is a journalist, tech reporter, and Cybersecurity Ventures Contributor based in San Jose, Calif.

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stevemorgancvheadshotCYBERSECURITY VENTURES

Steven C. Morgan, Editor-In-Chief

Steve Morgan is Founder and CEO at Cybersecurity Ventures, and Editor-In-Chief of the Cybersecurity Stock Report and the Cybersecurity 500 list of the world’s hottest and most innovative cybersecurity companies. Steve has written hundreds of cybersecurity blogs and articles which have appeared in CIO, Computerworld, CSO, Forbes, Homeland Security Today, InformationWeek / DarkReading, Infoworld, ITworld, SandHill.com, TMCnet, and others.

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